Posts Tagged ‘fieldguide0mg’

iPad Notebook export for A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age

August 27, 2017

Some quick quotes from
Citation (MLA): Levitin, Daniel J.. A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age. Penguin Publishing Group, 2016. Kindle file.
that I really liked

Each short quote is preceded by the words “Highlight” & indication of the location in the book.


Highlight(pink) – FUN WITH AVERAGES > Page 18 · Location 278 But be careful drawing conclusions about individuals and groups based on averages. The pitfalls here are so common that they have names: the ecological fallacy and the exception fallacy. The ecological fallacy occurs when we make inferences about an individual based on aggregate data (such as a group mean), and the exception fallacy occurs when we make inferences about a group based on knowledge of a few exceptional individuals. For example, imagine two small towns, each with only one hundred people. Town A has ninety-nine people earning $ 80,000 a year, and one super-wealthy person who struck oil on her property, earning $ 5,000,000 a year. Town B has fifty people earning $ 100,000 a year and fifty people earning $ 140,000. The mean income of Town A is $ 129,200 and the mean income of Town B is $ 120,000. Although Town A has a higher mean income, in ninety-nine
Highlight(pink) – FUN WITH AVERAGES > Page 21 · Location 309 Here is a brain-twister: The average child usually doesn’t come from the average family. Why? Because of shifting baselines. (I’m Highlight(pink) – PROBABILITIES > Page 117 · Location 1399
The consequences of such confusion are hardly just theoretical: Many court cases have hinged on a misapplication of conditional
probabilities, confusing the direction of what is known. A forensics expert may compute, correctly, that the probability of the blood found at the crime scene matching the defendant’s blood type by chance is only 1 percent. This is not at all the same as saying that there is only a 1 percent chance the defendant is innocent. What? Intuition tricks us again. The forensics expert is telling us the probability of a blood match given that the defendant is innocent: P( blood match | innocence)

A companion to the cherry-picking bias is selective windowing. This occurs when the information you

Highlight(pink) – BAYESIAN THINKING IN SCIENCE AND IN COURT > Page 221 · Location 2679
The problem of mistakenly thinking that P( Guilty | Evidence) = P( Evidence | Guilt) is so widespread it has been dubbed the prosecutor’s fallacy.


NASA Adds to Evidence of Mysterious Ancient Earthworks

March 12, 2017

#NASA Adds to Evidence of Mysterious Ancient Earthworks, built in
Neolithic Kazakhstan
Vindication for von Daniken?

Half of All Children Will Be Autistic by 2025, Warns Senior Research Scientist at MIT

March 11, 2017