The Man Who Knows Whether Any Startup Will Live or Die

December 3, 2017

The Man Who Knows Whether Any Startup Will Live or Die
https://www.Wired.com/2015/01/growth-science Quote: “You can’t trust the model until you get all the intuition out of it.” Not sure I agree!

QT:{{”
“Swapping out your drafty old windows for new energy efficient ones could save you a bundle in the long-term, but not everyone wants to spend the time and money to retrofit their entire home or office building. Indow Windows offers inserts that can improve efficiency without the cost or hassle of replacing the windows entirely. “Some other startups have tried this, and some of the big guys are trying to respond, but there’s a lot more innovation required to pull this off than most people suspect,” Thurston says. “In a very short timeframe Indow has zoomed up to become the market leader.”


His approach is based on turning various pieces of qualitative information—such as whether a company is a “first mover” or “fast follower” in a market—into quantitative data that he can plug into a spreadsheet. That requires a degree of human judgement, but this also requires a certain amount of rigor or consistency.

“You can’t trust the model until you get all the intuition out of it,” Thurston says. “The hard part of that is translating the qualification into yes or no questions,” he says. “How do you define the market? How do you define first mover?””

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