Interesting analysis, illustrating selection bias
QT:{{”
On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.
…
The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a
substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. T… But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. …These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.
“}}
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
linkstream2 microblog 