Posts Tagged ‘quote’

How Bad Is the Coronavirus Outbreak? Here’s a Key Number. – The Atlantic

April 26, 2020

QT:{{”
According to the Tracking Project’s figures, nearly one in five people who get tested for the coronavirus in the United States is found to have it. In other words, the country has what is called a
“test-positivity rate” of nearly 20 percent.

That is “very high,” Jason Andrews, an infectious-disease professor at Stanford, told us. Such a high test-positivity rate almost certainly means that the U.S. is not testing everyone who has been infected with the pathogen, because it implies that doctors are testing only people with a very high probability of having the infection.

The positivity rate is not the same as the proportion of COVID-19 cases in the American population at large, a metric called
“prevalence.”* …

Prevalence is a crucial number for epidemiologists, in part because it lets them calculate a pathogen’s true infection-fatality rate: the number of people who die after becoming infected.
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https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/us-coronavirus-outbreak-out-control-test-positivity-rate/610132/

Almost 90 percent of coronavirus patients on ventilators died in large U.S. study – The Washington Post

April 25, 2020

QT:{{”
The paper also found that of those who were hospitalized, 57 percent had hypertension, 41 percent were obese and 34 percent had diabetes which is consistent with risk factors listed by the Centers for Disease for Control and Prevention. Noticeably absent from the top of the list was asthma. As doctors and researchers have learned more about covid-19, the less it seems that asthma plays a dominant role in outcomes.
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Interesting that asthma was not found as one of the top risk factors.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-ventilators-survival/

https://twitter.com/jflier/status/1253834961754509312

Should everyone be taking vitamin D? – BBC Future

April 18, 2020

QT:{{”
There are two main types of D. The first is vitamin D3, which is found in animals including fish and is the kind the skin makes when exposed to sunlight. The second is vitamin D2, which comes from plant-based foods including mushrooms. Studies have found that D3 is more effective, and the conclusions of a 2012 meta-analysis argue that D3 is the preferred choice for supplementation.

When his team analysed raw data from 25 clinical trials involving 11,000 patients from 14 countries, they found a small benefit to taking daily or weekly vitamin D supplements to reduce the risk of respiratory infections, asthma attacks and bronchitis. Although the paper soon attracted robust criticism, Martineau points out that the reduction of risk, while slight, is still significant and comparable to the effects of other health measures: to prevent a single respiratory infection, you’d have to give 33 people vitamin D supplements – compared to, for example, giving a flu vaccination to 40 people to prevent a single case of flu.
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https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20181010-do-vitamin-d-supplements-work

A path for the US building products industry | McKinsey

April 18, 2020

QT:{{”
“Consumers, especially young ones, are likely to peg their purchasing behavior to environmental concerns; 70 percent of millennials surveyed said that they take companies’ stewardship of the environment into consideration when making purchasing decisions. Companies in diverse industries have responded by increasing their green offerings, in part because consumers are often willing to pay a premium for green products and services.”
“}}

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/private-equity-and-principal-investors/our-insights/strategy-in-the-face-of-disruption-a-way-forward-for-the-north-american-building-products-industry

The Coronavirus Economic Reopening Will Be Fragile, Partial and Slow – WSJ

April 17, 2020

Lots of thoughts on a PPE oriented future – with masks & plastic dividers

QT:{{”
Some firms may bring office workers back in alternating groups to allow for social distancing in open-plan offices. Restaurant chains may operate at half capacity, installing plexiglass shields between booths, while stores may do away with tester cosmetics and sanitize items after customers try them on.

Employees sit behind protective screens at a Hyundai Card cafeteria in Seoul. …
Cushman’s Amsterdam office is testing a workplace setup designed for social distancing. In the “Six-Feet Office,” transparent shields divide desks, markers direct foot traffic and disposable desk pads catch germs and can be discarded when a worker leaves for the day. “In the next four to six to eight weeks as people begin going back to work, companies aren’t going to have the time or the ability to remodel offices,” Mr. White said.

Cushman & Wakefield offices in Amsterdam dispay a new design concept called ‘Six-Feet Office.’
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coronavirus-economic-reopening-will-be-fragile-partial-and-slow-11586800447

Markov Chains— A take on Life – Towards Data Science

April 17, 2020

https://towardsdatascience.com/markov-chains-a-take-on-life-35614859c99c

“The future is independent of the past given the present.”

Human speech may have a universal transmission rate: 39 bits per second | Science | AAAS

April 14, 2020

QT:{{”
Some languages were clearly faster than others: no surprise there. But when the researchers took their final step—multiplying this rate by the bit rate to find out how much information moved per second—they were shocked by the consistency of their results. No matter how fast or slow, how simple or complex, each language gravitated toward an average rate of 39.15 bits per second, they report today in Science Advances. In comparison, the world’s first computer modem (which came out in 1959) had a transfer rate of 110 bits per second, and the average home internet connection today has a transfer rate of 100 megabits per second (or 100 million bits).
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https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/09/human-speech-may-have-universal-transmission-rate-39-bits-second

Bradford Hill criteria – Wikipedia

April 13, 2020

QT:{{”
In 1965, the English statistician Sir Austin Bradford Hill proposed a set of nine criteria to provide epidemiologic evidence of a causal relationship between a presumed cause and an observed effect. (For example, he demonstrated the connection between cigarette smoking and lung cancer.) The list of the criteria is as follows
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradford_Hill_criteria

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say? – WSJ

April 5, 2020

Interesting analysis, illustrating selection bias

QT:{{”
On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.

The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a
substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. T… But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. …These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

Dr. Tom Frieden: There’s a long war ahead and our Covid-19 response must adapt – CNN

April 1, 2020

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-response-must-adapt-frieden-analysis

QT:{{”
Massively scale up telemedicine. We need to reduce the number of people attending health care facilities while at the same time preserving and improving health.

Adapt to a new normal. The Covid-19 pandemic will change our world forever. Until it is controlled, we will all need to change how we wash our hands, cover our coughs, greet others and how close we come to others. We will rethink the need for meetings and conferences. We will need broadband for all as a public utility like mail or water. We will need to support the vulnerable, even if only because their illness can risk our health.
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