Posts Tagged ‘RJ’

The Two Settings of Kind and Wicked Learning Environments

April 17, 2020

There’s a paper on this topic that introduced the idea of “kind and wicked learning environments”:
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/5c5d/33b858eaf38f6a14b3f042202f1f44e04326.pdf

…in wicked environments it is difficult to do inference based on data. One solution seems to be to break down the problem in such a way that you can observe sub-problems in a kind environment.

The Two Settings of Kind and Wicked Learning Environments

Robin M. Hogarth1, Tomás Lejarraga2, and Emre Soyer3

Abstract
QT:{{” Inference involves two settings: In the first, information is acquired (learning); in the second, it is applied (predictions or choices). Kind learning environments involve close matches between the informational elements in the two settings and are a necessary condition for accurate inferences. Wicked learning environments involve mismatches. This conceptual framework facilitates identifying sources of inferential errors and can be used, among other things, to suggest how to target corrective procedures. For example, structuring learning environments to be kind improves probabilistic judgments. Potentially, it could also enable economic agents to exhibit maximizing behavior.
“}}

Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing | Science

April 15, 2020

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/30/science.abb6936

Great idea for #covid19… However, digital contact tracing has serious #privacy issues that have to be considered and perhaps ameliorated.

Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing

Luca Ferretti1,*, Chris Wymant1,*, Michelle Kendall1, Lele Zhao1, Anel Nurtay1, Lucie Abeler-Dörner1, Michael Parker2, David Bonsall1,3,†, Christophe Fraser1,4,†,‡

Science 31 Mar 2020: eabb6936
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb6936

Fig 2 shows the breakdown of infections into four types:
pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, environmental, and asymptomatic, and they contribute 0.9, 0.8., 0.2, and 0.1 each to the basic reproduction number of 2. To stop the spread of infections, you need to take measures to get the area under the curve to below 1. The paper then shows that when you do quarantining and contact tracing, you can’t get the reproduction number below 1. However, if you improve the speed of quarantining and contact tracing with a digital app/centralized system, then you can get it below 1.

Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing | Science

April 6, 2020

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/30/science.abb6936