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96 Lazy Ln – Google Maps
September 10, 2023Thoughts on Google and chatGPT
August 20, 2023Google’s current search presentation might seem to be very high-tech and current and not something that is going to become obsolete. Still, I would argue that it is going to change soon, particularly in the way it monetizes search through sponsored advertising.
For the past two decades, Google has dominated the online search industry and has figured out how to make a lot of money by connecting this with online advertising. Its presentation is basically a list of items, sometimes with interspersed ads in relation to a search query.
ChatGPT has the great potential to change this overall look because it directly provides an answer in the framework of a prose conversation without the possibility of a list or having sponsored results interspersed. The sponsored results are one of the main ways that Google gets revenue, so this is potentially worrisome to the company. It’s hard to see how Google could get sponsored revenue by directly interspersing sponsored comments into a ChatGPT type of dialogue without significantly distorting the results. ChatGPT also greatly disrupts the legions of people who have carefully set up their websites to optimize search engine performance.
Moreover, increasingly, even within Google search results, one doesn’t see a list presented but rather an immediate answer. For instance, if you pose a direct question or an arithmetic problem to Google, you get the answer and are not led to look down a list of search results. People are going to want this to avoid wasting time or having to look any farther on the page than necessary. In this sense, ChatGPT is the extreme scenario when you are given the direct answer in the form of dialogue.
Google is acutely aware of the possible disruption of ChatGPT to its revenue model. This can be seen in numerous news stories about its current panic, including issuing a company-wide “code red” and orienting the organization around generative AI.
References
Is Google’s 20-year dominance of search in peril?
https://www.economist.com/business/2023/02/08/is-googles-20-year-search-dominance-about-to-end
The Slot-Slaughter – Is ChatGPT The End Of Google Ads? – lyftyfy https://www.lyftyfy.com/the-slot-slaughter-is-chatgpt-the-end-of-google-ads/
ChatGPT and Other Chat Bots Are a ‘Code Red’ for Google Search – The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/technology/ai-chatgpt-google-search.html
Does the rise of ChatGPT mean the end for Google?
https://adguard.com/en/blog/chatgpt-bing-google-search.html
Breaking Eroom’s Law
July 16, 2023https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00059-3
anit – scaling !
Can the West build up its armed forces on the cheap?
July 16, 2023Describes “How “Lockheed’s law” keeps defence costs down”.
Compare to Moore’s law (e.g. described in
http://lectures.gersteinlab.org/summary/Biomed-DataSci-Intro–20190416-i0hm19)
Humans shed genetic information everywhere they go
May 29, 2023OpenAI’s Sam Altman warns Congress AI could cause ‘harm to the world’ – The Washington Post
May 22, 2023Large, creative AI models will transform lives and labour markets | The Economist
May 6, 2023https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2023/04/19/how-generative-models-could-go-wrong How generative models could go wrong
A big problem is that they are black boxes
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2023/04/19/large-language-models-ability-to-generate-text-also-lets-them-plan-and-reason How generative models could go wrong
A big problem is that they are black boxes
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/04/20/how-to-worry-wisely-about-artificial-intelligence
Who Owns a Song Created by A.I.? – The New York Times
April 30, 2023Blue Ocean Strategy
March 26, 2023https://hbr.org/2004/10/blue-ocean-strategy
Blue Ocean Strategy
Competing in overcrowded industries is no way to sustain high performance. The real opportunity is to create blue oceans of uncontested market space.
by W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne
Harvard Bus. Review (October 2004)
Also:
Red Ocean Traps
The mental models that undermine market-creating strategies by W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne
From the Magazine (March 2015)
https://hbr.org/2015/03/red-ocean-traps
