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It has also begun publishing a different type of map, one that shows the chances of snowfall reaching a certain threshold. In the case of this weekend’s storm, as of Friday morning it estimated that New York City had a 30 percent to 50 percent chance of receiving at least eight inches of snow in 24 hours.
“People might look at that and say, ‘It’s more likely that it won’t happen,’” Mr. Lamers said. “But, of course, 30 percent events happen all the time. The best players in baseball: That’s how often they get a hit.”
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/01/27/upshot/snow-forecast.html
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