https://mindmatters.ai/2020/07/election-models-predicting-the-past-is-easy-and-useless/
Posts Tagged ‘polds0mg’
Do You Think You Can Tell How a Neighborhood Voted Just by Looking Around? – The New York Times
April 11, 2021https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/trump-biden-geography-quiz.html I think these strategies might be good if this was turned into an interactive game, kind of like baseball’s Strat-O-Matic for politics.
https://twitter.com/TheStatusQuo2/status/1376616065417891840
An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2020 Election Results: Trump vs. Biden – The New York Times
February 6, 2021Why Polls Were Mostly Wrong – Scientific American
December 28, 2020Why Polls Were Mostly Wrong – Scientific American
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-polls-were-mostly-wrong/
Pollsters disappear in Georgia with Senate on the line – POLITICO
December 22, 2020Why Polling on The 2020 Presidential Election Missed the Mark – The New York Times
November 14, 2020QT:{{”
Senator Susan Collins did not lead in a single publicly released poll during the final four months of her re-election campaign in Maine. But Ms. Collins, a Republican, won the election comfortably.
Senator Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, trailed in almost every poll conducted in his race. He won, too.
And most polls underestimated President Trump’s strength, in Iowa, Florida, Michigan, Texas, Wisconsin and elsewhere. Instead of winning a landslide, as the polls suggested, Joseph R. Biden Jr. beat Mr. Trump by less than two percentage points in the states that decided the election.
…
This year’s misleading polls had real-world effects, for both political parties. The Trump campaign pulled back from campaigning in Michigan and Wisconsin, reducing visits and advertising, and lost both only narrowly. In Arizona, a Republican strategist who worked on Senator Martha McSally’s re-election campaign said that public polling showing her far behind “probably cost us $4 or $5 million” in donations. Ms. McSally lost to Mark Kelly by less than three percentage points.
…
A separate set of changes may involve how the media present polling and whether publications spend as much money on it in the future. “The media that sponsor polls should demand better results because their reputations are on the line,” James A. Baker III, the former secretary of state, wrote in The Wall Street Journal this week.
“}}
By David Leonhardt
Nov. 12, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/12/us/politics/election-polls-trump-biden.html
Good Grief, the Pollsters Got It Wrong – WSJ
November 14, 2020‘I Don’t Have a Happy Ending’: A Pollster on What Went Wrong – The New York Times
November 14, 2020By Lisa Lerer
Nov. 11, 2020
Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/11/us/politics/polls-election-pollster-interview.html
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