Posts Tagged ‘polds0mg’

Election Models: Predicting the Past is Easy—and Useless | Mind Matters

August 3, 2022

How spooks are turning to superforecasting in the Cosmic Bazaar | The Economist

June 27, 2021

What to expect in 2021 according to prediction markets | The Economist

May 4, 2021

Do You Think You Can Tell How a Neighborhood Voted Just by Looking Around? – The New York Times

April 11, 2021 I think these strategies might be good if this was turned into an interactive game, kind of like baseball’s Strat-O-Matic for politics.

An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2020 Election Results: Trump vs. Biden – The New York Times

February 6, 2021

Why Polls Were Mostly Wrong – Scientific American

December 28, 2020

Why Polls Were Mostly Wrong – Scientific American

Pollsters disappear in Georgia with Senate on the line – POLITICO

December 22, 2020

Why Polling on The 2020 Presidential Election Missed the Mark – The New York Times

November 14, 2020


Senator Susan Collins did not lead in a single publicly released poll during the final four months of her re-election campaign in Maine. But Ms. Collins, a Republican, won the election comfortably.

Senator Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, trailed in almost every poll conducted in his race. He won, too.

And most polls underestimated President Trump’s strength, in Iowa, Florida, Michigan, Texas, Wisconsin and elsewhere. Instead of winning a landslide, as the polls suggested, Joseph R. Biden Jr. beat Mr. Trump by less than two percentage points in the states that decided the election.

This year’s misleading polls had real-world effects, for both political parties. The Trump campaign pulled back from campaigning in Michigan and Wisconsin, reducing visits and advertising, and lost both only narrowly. In Arizona, a Republican strategist who worked on Senator Martha McSally’s re-election campaign said that public polling showing her far behind “probably cost us $4 or $5 million” in donations. Ms. McSally lost to Mark Kelly by less than three percentage points.

A separate set of changes may involve how the media present polling and whether publications spend as much money on it in the future. “The media that sponsor polls should demand better results because their reputations are on the line,” James A. Baker III, the former secretary of state, wrote in The Wall Street Journal this week.


By David Leonhardt
Nov. 12, 2020

Good Grief, the Pollsters Got It Wrong – WSJ

November 14, 2020

‘I Don’t Have a Happy Ending’: A Pollster on What Went Wrong – The New York Times

November 14, 2020

By Lisa Lerer

Nov. 11, 2020

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